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choose forex - gold and gold socks
Analysis

Gold goes up after Fed rate hike announcement

by Dragan Stankovic
written by Dragan Stankovic

choose forex - gold and gold socksFriday was third day in a row in which gold stock made profits. Compared to Tuesday, now it’s on a twenty dollars higher place. It was expected, especially after the Federal Reserve statement. Their commitment to keep the federal funds rate target at an ultra low level, pushed the U.S dollar down, together with most of the short – term yields.

The main enemy of gold stocks, throughout the past is higher short term rates and there are a few reasons for that. Rising the short rate terms is a benefit for the dollar, as it takes fewer of them to buy the same amount of gold. Another reason is that gold bars throw no yields.

After the latest statement, gold stocks are back on track and feeling safe. At the moment, gold is facing resistance at 1.205.80 $ and 1.204.70 $. Yesterday morning, it was up at 1.204.00$ so, analysts believe that further gains are not something you should bet on.choose forex - gold stock market

Gina Sanchez of Chantico Global has her own opinion: “Gold looks a lot better after the U.S Central Bank statement, but don’t expect it to last. I believe it will change quickly. The stand that the Fed has taken about raising the rates, or not raising them, is only a short term decision. They must raise them at some point just for credibility purposes. A rate hike will follow, and the losing streak of could will continue.

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choose forex - gold stock market
Analysis

Gold, platinum and silver in the spotlight again

by Dragan Stankovic
written by Dragan Stankovic

choose forex - gold stock marketThese past few weeks, the U.S dollar was all over gold stocks. The correlation between them is undeniable, and although gold has been trying to ditch that dependence, it was a mission impossible. As bond and equity volatility keep on, the stock market experts return their sights on gold again.

As German government bond yield went over the one percent limit for the first time since 2014 September, gold and silver danced between ups and downs in the last seven days. The growth of the dollar and the prediction that it will be positive till the end of the year pulled with itself the gold also. But on the other side, it pushed bullion prices way down.

According to Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital economics, only an inexperienced eye could make an assumption that the gold stocks and the gold market as a whole will depend on the American currency’s life.” The announced Fed tightening could bring lower prices, but that’s all. But when the Federal Reserve raises rates, it will automatically raise the gold demands. On the other hand, we have gold supplies stocking by the Russian Central Bank. It is a subtle war to diversify away from the U.S dollar holdings”.choose forex - stock market platinum

Gold left aside, platinum broke the psychological limit of 1100$, and there is danger to go even lower. The main reason is that this precious metal doesn’t have a “compare price to” relative, so it depends solely on the price movement of gold. USB strategist, Edel Tully believes it is not realistic: “ Gold doesn’t deserve to be above platinum, and we cannot let this situation to last. This is a clear warning that inflation is on its way”.

Silver is down compared to last month’s best results. At the moment it is at sixteen dollars per ounce, and experts predict it on 18.50$ per ounce at this years end.

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forex traders - change in Deutsche Bank
Analysis

Executives change, shares rise for Deutsche Bank

by Dragan Stankovic
written by Dragan Stankovic

Deutsche BankAlthough at one point they were seven percent up, Deutsche Bank stocks finished the day almost four percent higher than the starting point. Key factor for this big jump are the resignations of two co-chief executives. This moment that was gladly accepted by investors all over Europe.

The meeting held on Sunday had an emergency label on it, so Jurgen Fitschen’s and Anshu Jain’s resignations weren’t a big surprise as they would’ve been in some other occasion.

A big list of nonprofessional scandals and moves in the last year is supposed to be the main reason for the change. Just a reminder, Deutsche Bank got a penalty fine of two and a half billion dollars because of their role in the Libor inter – bank lending rate. Another big problem is the fifty five million dollars fine to end the civil charges for miss-stating financial reports.

The financial performance inside the bank is also on a disappointing level, so if we add that to the legal problems, the change is not surprising. For the first six months of this year, Deutsche Bank’s incomes are 559 million euros lower in comparison to the first half of last year. Revenue raised for a quarter to 10.4 billion euros, so there is no excuse for this sort of results.choose - forex - Jurgen Fitshcen resignation

After Mr. Fitshen’s departure scheduled for May next year, John Cryan is going to become sole chief executive of Deutsche Bank.

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choose forex - stock market table
Analysis

Stocks dip, dollar weaker because alleged Obama statement

by Dragan Stankovic
written by Dragan Stankovic

Stocks dipIt was a strange day on the European stock markets after the president of USA, Barack Obama allegedly made a statement in which he expressed concern over the strength of the dollar. This was later denied though. German government in the meantime weighed with more sales thanks to that.

Since the middle of April, the ten year Bund yields are constantly rising, which made them a central figure on the global markets. In the first hour of trading in Europe, they gained four basis points, causing another shake. The shared of the biggest bank in Germany, Deutsche Bank, jumped 6 percent, after the leadership change. German industrial output numbers announced better days for the biggest economy in Europe.

The Turkish lira got to a record low level and the main stock from this country made a fall of 6 percent, after the ruling party failed to win a majority on the elections. Future weeks could bring political turmoil so that will reflect on the markets even more.Stocks dip

 

According to the data reinforced investors, Europe is become economically stronger and is going away from the deflation made by a lot of debts and money market contracts below zero. The higher the yields on bonds are, the more stocks you have. The record for the last eight years this April was right before Bunds began to move down, causing more money to come back into the bond market. The sign of an economy getting stronger are supposed to share these values.

choose forex - ObamaBack on the statement given by Obama, which proved to be a false report? The U.S dollar fell rapidly after that, against the euro and the yen. Obama allegedly said that a strong dollar could be a problem, during a conversation in Germany. A strong denial came from the White House, so the American currency got back a little bit of its strength, but not enough to make a full recovery.

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European shares
News

European shares pulling up

by admin
written by admin

cf brokers - European shares rising on stock marketsIt was a good Monday for European shares, thanks to the alleged progress in the negotiations between Greece and the euro zone partners. Chinese stock markets made a five percent rally, and made significant contribution to the European shares jump.

On the other hand, U.S stocks were set to begin at 0.3 – 0.5 percent higher prices. These shares are at status quo since they hit highest in the middles of May.

World’s second largest economy and its representative, Shanghai, caught the global focus on itself again considering financial risks. Last week we saw something of a street fight in a sell – off war, and stocks are still 50 percent higher this year.choose forex - china stock market, Shanghai

Mondays big leap, according to the analysts and traders is a result of bad surveys, and that all of them had one thing in common – bad outlook of the economy. They believe that this is evidence that markets around the world are driven by speculators and false reports, instead of real economic data.

Wang Yu, analyst at Pacific Securities in Beijing, stated that the pattern in a bull market is always the same. A plunge comes in, followed by pilling the money, and as a result the market is pushed higher. “ For many of our clients, last week’s happenings on the market represent a big risk reduction, and that, in the end, will create new buying possibilities “, he said.

We were also witnesses of the biggest one – day rise since December 2012 today. CSI300 index of the biggest listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai made a jump of 4.9 percent. FTSE Euro first index of 300 leading companies from Europe went up 0.6 percent, making a profit in all major markets. Asia – Pacific’s MSCI index outside Japan, went just a little bit lower, since they already sank to its lowest enter day level since the seventh of April.

The talks between Athens and its creditors, which were not so good in the last period, didn’t cause much harm to the euro until Monday. It went down 0.5 percent. The sinking could have been bigger, but speculation came that the negotiations are better and some statement is on its way. But, after all officials issued a press release that no prospect was in hand.greece depth

The U.S dollar gained even more strength in the last ten days, causing euro to fall deeper, but it did not change the ratio against the yen.
Market concerns remain strong, after Greece missed the deadline on Sunday to reach agreement. The deadline from IMF is the fifth of June, so all eyes are looking in that direction.

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forex trading - drilling for oil stock market
Analysis

Oil up one percent, U.S inventories down again

by Dragan Stankovic
written by Dragan Stankovic

inventoriesAmerican inventories fell for a fourth straight week which caused crude futures to arise about one percent on Friday, even though all of the prices are set in expectation for a weekly drop on a strong dollar.

At the beginning of this week, the awakened dollar weighed the market , in the center of the speculations that U.S crude supplies may start to rise again after more than three weeks of draws, which caused for oil stocks to make a steep fall.

Front month U.S crude was at 58.23 a barrel, and climbed 55 cents, and ended the a record weekly winning streak. July Brent crude went up 47 cents and reached $63.05 a barrel, but ended falling and set a drop second week In a row. Nature catastrophe in the shape of big wildfires in Canada caused a 10 percent knockout on its oil sands output, which also had effect on the prices.

U.S Energy Information Administration data shows a fall of 2.8 million barrels in crude oil inventories in the past seven days. That is forth week in a row going down, and the main reason for this is the unofficial kick off of the summer driving season In the States, Monday’s Memorial Day holiday.

The American Petroleum Institute estimated a build of 1.3 million barrels, which is not consistent with a Reuters survey that showed a 857,000 barrels draw down forecast, and completely contrary with the Energy Information Administration’s report.

Barclay’s analysts issued a note saying that the pressure in the U.S to store crude oil so likely to come down during the summer, flattening the WTI curve if only temporarily. But the imbalance in global supply will continue in the second half of the year as well.OPEC guards

OPEC maintained production, keeping markets well supplied and on time, causing Brent’s premium over U.S prices to come off over 40 percent since the middle of April.

Societe General analysts issued a note saying that they will continue to focus on U.S production and their costs, since the OPEC meeting is just around the corner, June 5, and there is no chance of changing their policy.

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stock market oil
AnalysisNews

Oil price under the 60$ mark

by Dragan Stankovic
written by Dragan Stankovic

Oil priceRaw oil futures fell in early on Monday in Europe, as commodity was shaken by a strong and ever becoming stronger US dollar. Commodity that was a result of the holidays across the major markets, including USA.

Oil pricesin the United States lost 1.4 percent last week only, snapping a wining streak of three weeks, ending bellow the mark of 60$. Brent crude in London has been down for down in two of the past three weeks, losing 2.2 percent these days.

Only one oil rig was shut down in the U.S during the last week, Baker Hughes oil service company announced, and that caused a major concern that U.S shale production will rebound quickly, but on the back grounds of higher oil prices. Nymex crude is higher about 12 percent year to date.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs issued a report this weekend, stating that low cost producers in U.S are now on a test. They need to prove that they can respond to the rally, and sustainably deliver higher production.
Stronger oil demand in USA and China, the two world’s largest oil consumers, is the reason the oil prices remained steady in recent weeks.Gasoline Thailand

Miswin Mahesh, an Barclays analyst, believes that also India, Thailand and the Philippines and they’re stronger gasoline demand, are a key factor in the recovery of oil prices. The main reason is the consumer demand in these countries, oppose to the industrial demand, he said.

Nymexchanged their gasoline blend stock for June RBM5, + 0.98 percent, and the benchmark gasoline contract is now higher for 158 points, up to 2.0697$ a gallon, while diesel in June was traded at 1.9577.52 points higher.

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