This week has been relatively peaceful, by forex standards at least, but there is alarming bad news from Germany looming over the horizon, with the possibility of joining Belgium in banning forex and binary options altogether. Is this the beginning of the end for these industries? Meanwhile, we may be seeing a whole new branch opening up with Facebook’s version of Craigslist already being used for all sorts of unintended purposes. But more on that in the main segment. For now, let us see how major forex pairs have been holding up.
The Week Behind Us:
EUR/USD: The neutral phase is far from over for this currency pair. In fact, the calm seas seem to benefit traders who specialize in range-bound trading strategies. The sheer resiliency of this range is slightly disconcerting for some analysts as things are getting eerily calm. In any case, the old 1.1120/1.1290 range is still very much in effect and will continue for the next few days at least.
GBP/USD: On Wednesday, we saw this pair hit 1.2686 which only confirms its bearish phase. Since the old support level is in all likelihood breached, the new one can be expected somewhere around 1.2620. The decline rate is slowing down, but not stopping just yet.
AUD/USD: At least some things remain relatively stable, such as this currency pair. The range moves slightly but it is still there. For a while it seemed like the price will go above the resistance level, but it seems the pair is slowly getting settled in. At least for now. We are most likely looking at a 0.7750/0.7710 range.
NZD/USD: On Wednesday we saw a new trend that is likely to grip this pair for the next couple of days if not more. The sudden drop can even reach 0.7110 at some point, but getting lower than that and staying there is a bit much, especially in such short period of time. For now, keep your stop-loss at 0.7260 – this is the best advice we can provide at this point.
USD/JPY: Well, it seems like USD has finally strengthened up and now we are looking at a much-awaited bullish phase. At this rate, it should reach 104.30 in no time.
Forex Forecast for Major Pairs:
EUR/USD: Neutral, same as last week. The old 1.1120/1.1290 range holds.
GBP/USD: Bearish. The next support level should be at 1.2620.
AUD/USD: Neutral. The range is 0.7750/0.7710.
NZD/USD: Bearish. Should not drop below 0.7110, at least for now.
USD/JPY: Bullish at last. The next target is 104.30.
Germany Bans Forex and Binaries?
We begin our main segment where Belgium’s FSMA (Financial Services and Markets Authority) left off two months ago. When they decided to ban marketing and distribution of all OTC derivatives including binary options – especially binary options – everybody was wondering who might be next. Everyone’s money was on France, but it seems the Germans may beat them to the punch yet again. The worst part is that a lot of the negative reputation of binary options is also going to extend onto forex in an unprecedented case of guilt by association.
Accoring to the Times of Israel, Germany’s BaFin (the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) is looking at not only CFDs and binary options, but also on forex as well. This comes amidst an EU-wide witch hunt and hysteria aimed at all sorts of online trading but the bulk of concerns remain directed at binary options, at least for now. While there is no indication that Germany is going to ban forex at this point, they are definitely considering such a move, and they are not alone in this.
The overall attitude towards financial instruments in general among the regulators in Europe is far from favorable. In the Netherlands, AFM (the Authority for the Financial Markets) has already denounced them and banned public advertising, just like France’s AMF. If the bill called Sapin II passes the French legislation, it may be next to impossible to trade forex or any kind of financial instruments in France.
The worst part is that the bulk of the new regulation being brought about throughout the EU do not seek to weed out the crooked brokers but rather to kill the entire industry altogether. It is like curing the illness by killing the patient. In any case, we will have to wait and see how things turn out in the future.
People Already Selling Drugs and Adult Services on Facebook’s Marketplace
Less than a week since Facebook unveiled its version of Craigslist called Marketplace, some users are already using it in a number of immoral and illegal ways. This should not come as a surprise, as both the real Craigslist and eBay have been battling unscrupulous users who used their networks in order to sell illegal goods such as drugs or weapons, but the sheer pressure and number of violators of Facebook’s policies is nothing short of astounding.
If you wanted to illegally buy a baby hedgehog, snake or hire a prostitute, you could have satisfied your needs on the listings of Marketplace – not that we support or endorse such activities, of course. Far from it. According to Business Insider, the first line of defense that Facebook has in place against such illegal transactions are dedicated employees who scour the posts in search of contraband or illicit offers.
There have been no such incidents during the trial phase, but it should be pointed out that it was very limited and closely watched. Now that the Messenger can be accessed via a simple Facebook app in the U.S., Australia, New Zealand and in the U.K., however, things are proving to be much more difficult to police or monitor. In any case, this news should be a welcome distraction from the grim reality of EU regulations.
Source: Business Insider
Forex Reminder: The Upcoming Week
CNY Aggregate Financing CNY (SEP)
CNY New Yuan Loans CNY (SEP)
07:45 CHF Unemployment Rate (SEP)
07:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (SEP)
08:00 EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (AUG)
23:45 NZD Card Spending Retail (MoM) (SEP)
23:45 NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (SEP)
CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (3Q)
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (SEP)
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (SEP)
USD Monthly Budget Statement (SEP)
01:50 JPY Trade Balance – BOP Basis (Yen) (AUG)
02:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (SEP)
02:30 AUD Home Loans (AUG)
06:30 JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (SEP)
11:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (OCT)
11:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (OCT)
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (OCT)
14:15 CAD Housing Starts (SEP)
01:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (OCT)
01:50 JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (AUG)
01:50 JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (AUG)
08:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (SEP P)
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (AUG)
11:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (OCT)
13:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 7)
20:00 USD U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Sept. 20-21 FOMC Meeting
23:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (SEP)
CNY Trade Balance (SEP)
CNY Trade Balance CNY (SEP)
01:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (SEP)
02:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (OCT)
04:00 JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (SEP)
06:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (AUG)
08:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP F)
08:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP F)
14:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 8)
14:30 USD Continuing Claims (OCT 1)
17:00 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 7)
17:00 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (OCT 7)
18:15 USD Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economic Outlook in Philadelphia
01:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (OCT 7)
01:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (OCT 7)
01:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (OCT 7)
01:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (OCT 7)
03:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)
03:30 CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)
14:30 USD Advance Retail Sales (SEP)
14:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos (SEP)
14:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (SEP)
14:30 USD Retail Sales Control Group (SEP)
16:00 USD Business Inventories (AUG)
16:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (OCT P)
18:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at Boston Fed Conference
19:00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (OCT 14)