The thing about forex is that any political development, no matter how insignificant it may seem, may prove devastating. This is not just the case with politics and forex markets, though. The biggest news this week has rocked stocks and forex pairs considerably, and it is barely even related to Hillary Clinton. On the other hand, a mayor and his bodyguards have been killed in a police shootout in the Philippines and the markets could not care less. Interesting how these things work, is it not?
The Happenings with Politics and Forex
In any event, this week we saw the Clinton campaign taking a massive blow when the FBI started another investigation regarding Hillary’s emails, we saw Wallonia getting aboard and ending the whole standoff regarding EU-Canada trade partnership, Chinese authorities are taking measures to deflate the property bubble safely and many more developments.
In the northern hemisphere, markets are still reeling in from a shocking revelation connecting close associates of Hillary Clinton to yet another wrongdoing. This new scandal is the last thing markets needed, and this uncertainty has affected stocks and currencies alike. USD took a punch, but it was nowhere near as severe as the one Wall Street had to roll with. As strong GDP numbers were spurring major indexes onward, this scandal that could potentially affect the outcome of the election has already affected the markets, even though the FBI has yet to confirm that any of the material they have uncovered is significant for the actual elections.
Markets had already priced in Hillary Clinton as the next president, so this does not bode well for their plans. A recent drop in consumer sentiment has been the cherry on top this week. Meanwhile, the Trump headquarters would gloat over this matter, if they weren’t so concerned that the ‘landing accident’ of Mike Pence’s plane was not that accidental after all. Now they have to decide whether to focus on what some media have already dubbed the attempted assassination or on Hillary Clinton getting back on FBI’s bad side.
Apart from a bit of good news for EU-enthusiasts, after Wallonia finally signed off on the whole trade deal with Canada, it seems that Mark Carney will opt out of extending his term as BOE governor. Even though some analysts have predicted he might choose to stay after 2018, the criticism of his monetary policy and arguments with prominent Tories seem to have persuaded Carney to make a career change. By sharp contrast, it would seem that PM Theresa May would prefer if he stayed, despite their slight personal rivalry, or she just does not want the investors to point fingers at her for making their favorite governor resign. Meanwhile the pound went under $1.21 last Tuesday, which would mean it lost roughly 17% of its value against the U.S. currency this year alone. And it seems it has a lot to go, as some estimates predict it could lose at least another 10% before it stabilizes.
Further to the east, another 10,000 civil servants have been fired in Turkey, as the seemingly endless crackdown on anyone associated with the recent coup is being targeted mercilessly. Anyone who is even suspected of harboring ties to Fethullah Gulen is being punished in some way or another. This has even put a huge strain on relationship between Ankara and Washington, as Erdogan accuses the U.S. of harboring his arch-nemesis. So far, thousands of intellectuals including teachers, doctors and academics have been purged from civil service, and some have been imprisoned as well. In addition there has been a crackdown on medias, especially in the southeast of the country, with 15 of them being shut down in recent days.
So far, more than 37,000 people have been arrested and over 100,000 have lost their jobs, mostly in the Justice department. The state of emergency is to last at least until next year, as Ankara seems intent of dealing with any opponents to its power however it sees fit, whether they are actually related to the coup or not. This includes Kurdish militants in the southeast.
In the Philippines, a local official and his bodyguards have been killed in a shootout with the state police. Samsudin Dimaukom, Mayor of Datu Saudi-Ampatuan, has been referred to as a “narco-politician” by President Duterte, and now he and his bodyguards lie slain for allegedly trying to transport narcotics. He was only one of many names on the list of “narco-politicians,” put together by Duterte as a part of his war on drugs. Whether these are his political opponents or actual criminals, Dimaukom and his men apparently tried to breach a roadblock that was deliberately set for them, on an anonymous tip received by the police.
There has been a shootout and Dimaukom and his men have all perished. No policemen were injured in the course of this intervention. No actual evidence against Dimaukom has ever been put forward connecting him with drug trade. As horrible as this may seem, this is only a tiny portion of thousands of dead in the war on drugs that is still ongoing. Some have been killed at the hands of police officers, but many more have been slain by unknown vigilantes, seemingly with complete impunity.
It is odd how things may take a turn all of a sudden. Mere couple of days ago, Hillary’s victory was all but assured, Wallonia was adamant in blocking the CETA agreement, and Carney was actually encouraged to leave. As for wars, whether they are actual ones, waged in the Middle East, or drug wars in far-off places such as the Philippines, it seems most of their outcomes have already been factored in. And yet, life has a way of surprising us – from people in the UK voting to leave the EU, to spouses of associates sending emails about wanting to rape a 15-year old girl, to simply governors like Carney and Kuroda deciding they have had enough and deciding to leave BOE and BOJ respectively, once their terms are over. But life moves on.